Do we still drink orange juice or not?
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Do we still drink orange juice or not? Let’s find out why this dilemma exists:
Orange juice, one of the most beloved drinks of Romanians due to its vitamin-rich, sweet-sour content, is facing an unprecedented crisis. Due to a combination of unfavorable factors, its price will increase significantly in the next period.
Brazil and the Poor Harvest of the Last 36 Years
Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of orange juice, announced that it is facing the weakest harvest in the last 36 years. According to the estimates of the market research company Fundecitrus, the severe drought has seriously affected crops, which will lead to a significant decrease in production. This season, Brazil is expected to produce only 232.4 million boxes of oranges, each weighing approximately 40 kilograms. This represents a decrease of 24% compared to the previous season.
More worrying is the fact that this production will be the lowest since 1988, when only 214 million boxes were produced. The impact on the world market of orange juice will be major, given the fact that Brazil is responsible for approximately 70% of global exports of this drink.
Price Increase
The estimated drop in production had an immediate effect on the market. Prices for orange juice on the ICE stock exchange increased by up to 5% two weeks ago, reaching the highest level in the last three months. Since the beginning of the year, prices have increased by 26%, indicating the market’s concern about the shortage of oranges.
Aggravating Factors
Drought is not the only factor that affected orange production in Brazil. The excess heat during the crucial period of flowering and early fruit formation, between September and November 2024, considerably reduced the harvest. Also, a bacterium that causes the fruit to drop prematurely from the trees contributed to the drop in production, according to the information provided by Fundecitrus.
Global Impact
The impact of a poor orange harvest in Brazil will be felt globally. In addition to the reduction in production in Brazil, the state of Florida, the most important producer of orange juice in the USA, is also facing problems. The disease known as Huanlongbing (HLB) or “citrus greening” has caused significant damage in recent years. The latest estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that Florida will produce only 17.8 million boxes of oranges this season, 5% less than previous estimates.
The orange juice crisis is real and will affect consumers all over the world, including those in Romania. With production declining in Brazil and Florida, prices will continue to rise, making this popular drink a luxury for many. Consumers must be prepared for significant price increases and look for alternatives, as the market adapts to the new conditions.
Should we stock up?